The Secret Harbour by-electionis shaping up to be one of the most closely-watched political contests in WA for some time.
The battle for the outer suburban seat in Perth’s south is expected to be a majortest of One Nation’s popularity in the state, and the ability of the Labor and Liberal parties to fight back.
This is your guide to who the candidates are, how to vote and what to expect.
Who are the candidates?
Secret Harbour has long been considered a safe Labor seat and the by-election was triggered by last month’s retirement of high-profile minister Paul Papalia, who represented the electorate for almost two decades.
So it is unsurprising the party was first out of the gates with their candidate, a former staffer to federal Resources Minister Madeleine King, and more recently a lobbyist with Woodside.
Georgia Tree, 34, has been leaning into her working-class roots, pointing out her dad raised her on a single wage working in the area after her mum died when she was nine.
“Labor built Medicare. My Mum’s chemo would have bankrupted our family without it, and now Labor’s building a brand new hospital in Mandurah,” she said.
“Dad’s apprenticeship helped him turn his life around, and now Labor’s made TAFE free.”
She’s been criticised for living in Perth’s northern suburbs, rather than her prospective electorate, telling The West Australian she had tried to find a home in the area but was “not prepared to pay in excess of market value”.
In 2023 she published Old Boy, a biography of her father’s life, including his struggles with heroin addiction before turning his life around in WA’s mining industry.
The Liberals confirmed Ryan Robertson as their candidate on Saturday – a 35-year-old former submariner turned real estate agent and podcast host.
The father of three is currently a City of Rockingham councillor, representing its Rockingham/Safety Bay ward since last year.
Mr Robertson’s LinkedIn shows him serving in the navy between 2009 and 2021, during which time he was awarded Submariner of the Year.
“I feel as if the people of Secret Harbour are not quite getting heard on issues that we truly believe matter to all of us,” he said at his first press conference as a candidate.
“Lots of promises, no delivery, and that’s not something that sits comfortably with me.”
He said the three pillars of his campaign would be “listen, work hard, and deliver for the people of Secret Harbour”.
Pushed on how he would deliver from opposition, both he and leader Basil Zempilas said the opposition could often raise issues and force the government to act.
The Nationals have confirmed they won’t run in the seat, urging their supporters to back the Liberals instead.
Gym ownerand former champion weightlifterLuke Herdegen will be One Nation’s candidate for the by-election.
His LinkedIn profile shows he has been working in the fitness space since at least mid-2019, including as a coach and manager.
One Nation likes its chancesof winning the by-election and has been active in attacking Labor on social media with AI-generated content that focuses on Labor’s “neglect of the seat”.
“Crime is up in the suburbs with the electorate, as is homelessness. Traffic for morning commuters is getting worse,” leader Rod Caddies wrote in one post.
“And despite spending billions on Metronet, they have failed to deliver the train station they promised you years and years ago.”
At the 2025 election, One Nation’s candidate received 8.4 per cent of the primary vote, more than double the party’s state-wide average.
The Greens have described Rhi Davies as an “active community organiser, defence spouse of many years and a local mum of three teenagers”.
Concerns about the AUKUS submarine deal tying Australia to “Trump’s war machine”, the average renter in Secret Harbour spending more than 30 per cent of their income on rent and the “climate crisis” feature in her bio.
“We want rents capped to give struggling families immediate relief, and we want housing built for local residents, rather than prioritising American AUKUS workers,” she said in a statement.
“We want cheap, clean energy delivered by a rapid transition to renewables. We want to stop AUKUS and Westport and protect Cockburn Sound.”
The Greens polled third in Secret Harbour at the 2025 election, with 8.8 per cent of the primary vote — lower than their state-wide average of 11.1 per cent.
Craig Buchanan works in the office of the Legalise Cannabis party’s only MP, Brian Walker, as a research officer and senior adviser.
He recently resigned from Rockingham City Council after six years of service and holds a PhD in literature from the University of Western Australia.
Dr Buchanan said he will campaign for “sensible, evidence-based cannabis reform”, having credited medicinal cannabis with giving him “freedom of choice” after being diagnosed with bowel cancer two years ago.
“It’s about the right to heal and function without the fear of outdated stigma or unfair legal repercussions,” he said in a statement.
His policy positions include repealing driving laws that criminalise patients for driving with trace amounts of cannabis in their system if they are not impaired and protecting medicinal cannabis patients from workplace discrimination.
When is the Secret Harbour by-election?
Election day is Saturday, August 29, when Secret Harbour residents will be able to cast their votes and get their hands on a democracy sausage.
Polling places will be open from 8am to 6pm, but locations are yet to be announced.
If you are keen to get it over with, early voting will begin from Monday, August 17, and run for nearly two weeks until polling day.
What do I have to do?
If you live in Secret Harbour, the first thing is to make sure you’re enrolled by 6pm on Tuesday, July 21.
“For most of my married life, my family have sacrificed their interests in favour of my service, first in the military and for much of the last two decades in politics,” he said at the time.
“It’s time they got a better share of my time and energy. I’m sorry for my unplanned departure from parliament and the by-election it will trigger.”
Paul Papalia and the premier hug after his retirement speech. (ABC News: Keane Bourke)
Unlike in the Legislative Council where a retiring MP can be replaced by the next person on the ballot paper, every resignation in a lower house seat triggers a fresh election.
No one is really sure, but it will be interesting to watch.
Secret Harbour, which encompasses most of the suburban areas between Rockingham and Mandurah, has been a safe Labor heartland for decades, but the political tides could be changing.
One Nation has previously done well in similar mortgage belt seats where housing and cost of living pressures can be most acute, including at the South Australian election earlier this year.
“A lot of the places where they’re expected to do relatively well are on the outer suburbs of all the big cities, and Secret Harbour is about as outer as you can get in Perth,” political analyst Ben Raue said.
It is a threat that already seems to have Liberal leader Basil Zempilas worried, saying Labor losing the seat would be a win for his party, even if it went to One Nation.
One pain point for the Liberals is likely to be the party’s relationship with One Nation.
The Liberals would need the minor party’s preferences to get over the line, but that runs the risk of associating themselves with One Nation’s more controversial policies around issues like migration.
Labor is concerned too. Immediately after Mr Papalia announced his resignation, Premier Roger Cook was straight into campaign mode, declaring it the “fight for our lives”.
The party suffered a 19.8 per cent swing against it at the last election – about 1.5 per cent higher than the statewide result.
What are the key issues expected to be?
There are no prizes for working out housing and cost of living will be key issues, as they will be elsewhere.
The non-Labor parties cannot promise anything during the campaign, so expect them to be accusing the government of not delivering for the seat over its nine years in power.
The absence of a train station at Karnup, which Labor first promised as part of its 2013 election campaign, is already being pointed out by the other parties and seems to be a sore spot for locals.
A government website says it remains committed to Karnup Station “and will continue to pursue investment opportunities with the federal government”.
The rollout of FOGO bins in the City of Rockingham has proved controversial locally and could spill over to the campaign, given the bins are being pushed by the state government.
Mr Robertson also identified a lack of infrastructure compared with places like Mandurah or Cockburn as a major concern for the area.
The Secret Harbour by-election will be held next month on Saturday, August 29.
