It is Super Rugby Pacific’s equivalent of a Mission: Impossible film plot line.
If the Brumbies and Reds are to keep their respective seasons alive, they must create history by becoming the first Australian teams to win a final in New Zealand since Super Rugby’s professional era began in 1996.
As it stands, Australian franchises have a combined 0-21 win-loss record when facing New Zealand opponents in play-off matches across the Tasman.
The Brumbies meet the top-ranked Hurricanes in Wellington on Friday night, while the Reds play the second-placed Chiefs on their home deck in Hamilton the following evening.
New Zealand is a daunting road trip at the best of times, let alone in a sudden-death final.
But only last week, the Brumbies were a chance of avoiding the scenario in the opening week of the play-offs.
At the beginning of the final round of the regular season, the Brumbies knew they could finish as high as third on the standings.
A top-three finish would have guaranteed a home qualifying final, although they needed to secure a bonus-point win over Moana Pasifika and rely on other results to go their way.
Once the full-time whistle was blown in their 21-19 loss to Moana at Canberra Stadium on Saturday afternoon, however, the Brumbies found themselves sitting in sixth place.
The Brumbies could not stop Moana Pasifika at Canberra Stadium. (Getty Images: Mark Nolan)
A defeat to the Hurricanes, who have not lost at home this season, will end the Brumbies’ campaign.
The Brumbies only have themselves to blame for being on the cusp of elimination as they lost matches they were expected to win, highlighted by the 3-4 win-loss return they posted at Canberra Stadium.
To the credit of the Brumbies, they did win two of the three matches they played in New Zealand, including a 50-24 victory over the defending champion Crusaders.
But the one loss they registered was against the Hurricanes, who convincingly won 45-12 when the two sides met in Christchurch as part of Super Round.
Sensibly, Brumbies coach Stephen Larkham instructed his players to “flush” out the disappointment of the Moana result as quickly as possible.
But there were lessons to take away from the shock defeat, with Brumbies fullback Tom Wright telling Stan Sport his side’s physicality was “not up to scratch”.
If the Brumbies are any hope of defeating the Hurricanes, they must dominate the collisions on both sides of the ball.
They will be punished if they allow the Hurricanes to win the physical contest.
Larkham cited the Brumbies’ misfiring line-out against Moana among the reasons for the defeat, with the home side losing five of their 15 throws.
Their line-out also let them down when they lost to the Hurricanes in April.
Larkham said the set-piece would be worked upon at training, with the Brumbies mindful they cannot give the Hurricanes any advantage.
Reds face stiff challenge
When the Reds met the Chiefs in round 13 at Lang Park, they valiantly pushed last year’s runner-up in a 31-21 loss.
Honourable defeats mean little, though, and the Reds do not need reminding of how tough it is to beat the Chiefs, or any New Zealand team, in the play-offs.
They lost to the Waikato-based franchise in the opening week of the finals in 2023 and 2024, and suffered the same fate against the Crusaders in Christchurch twice during the past five seasons.
It is no surprise Reds skipper Fraser McReight referred to a “hoodoo” earlier this week when chatting to reporters about his side’s finals record in New Zealand.
The Reds lost to the Chiefs when they faced off earlier this season. (Getty Images: Bradley Kanaris)
The Reds, who finished fifth on the standings, enter the play-offs on the back of wins against Moana (33-31) and Fijian Drua (45-24), but neither performance could be described as an 80-minute effort.
They coughed up a 21-5 lead in the Drua match to trail 24-21 early in the second half, prior to finishing with a flourish via four unanswered tries.
The Chiefs will pounce if the Reds experience a similar lapse in concentration.
Injury has struck the Reds ahead of Saturday night, with Hunter Paisami (knee) and Seru Uru (back) ruled out.
Paisami and Josh Flook combined to be the best-performed Australian centre pairing during the regular season.
Winger Filipo Daugunu is an able replacement for Paisami at inside centre, but the Reds are a more potent force when they both feature in the starting backline.
Uru’s attacking skills will be missed at blindside flanker, although the abrasive Joe Brial gives the Reds another primary line-out target alongside Josh Canham.
Brial topped the competition for most line-out wins (61) this season.
Wallabies hit with injury blow
The Force’s 31-25 triumph over the Waratahs in Perth had no bearing on finals qualification but the match left the Wallabies with a hole to fill ahead of their 2026 Test program.
Waratahs stalwart Jake Gordon ruptured his Achilles tendon and underwent surgery on Monday, which ruled him out of the remainder of the season.
The injury is a blow to the Wallabies’ scrum half stocks, as Gordon was set to feature in next month’s Nations Cup.
He finished 2025 as the Wallabies’ starting nine, having been a mainstay in coach Joe Schmidt’s squad since the New Zealander took charge ahead of the 2024 internationals.
Jake Gordon will miss the Wallabies’ 2026 Test campaign. (Getty Images: Charles McQuillan)
With Gordon sidelined and Nic White retired, Tate McDermott will shoulder much of the responsibility at scrum half but there is depth developing in the position.
Kalani Thomas performed admirably for the Reds while McDermott was absent through injury for much of the Super Rugby Pacific season.
Thomas made his Test debut off the bench when he replaced Gordon in the Wallabies’ 48-33 loss to France in Paris last November.
The Brumbies’ Ryan Lonergan will firmly be in the selection frame as he is the form scrum half among the Australian teams in Super Rugby Pacific this year.
If a bolter was to be named in the wider squad, Teddy Wilson would come into contention.
Wilson is Gordon’s understudy at NSW and impressed during his playing opportunities this season, despite the Waratahs’ poor results.
NRL isn’t rugby’s only threat
Last weekend, Australian rugby was reminded it is not just the NRL posing a challenge when it comes to keeping young talent in the game.
Harry Kyle appeared in his first AFL match for the Sydney Swans on Saturday, only two years after contacting the club’s academy looking for an opportunity to play Australian rules.
Kyle’s junior sporting career was dominated by rugby and basketball.
His Swans debut illustrates the competitive nature of the local sporting landscape in which rugby finds itself, especially in the northern states.
Ex-rugby junior Harry Kyle made his AFL debut for the Swans last weekend. (Getty Images: Darrian Traynor)
The 18-year-old’s move to Australian rules is an example of how the AFL considers recruiting prospective players regardless of their experience.
It has never disguised its intent to chase talent from other sports, particularly those with height and athleticism, and it has a financial war chest to make any potential code switch appealing.
Among the current AFL club lists, Kyle is not alone in having a rugby background.
Adelaide Crows ruckman Lachlan McAndrew, who stands at 210 centimetres tall, also came through the Swans academy after playing junior rugby as a lock.
Although McAndrew doubted whether he had a future in professional rugby, he was talented enough to be selected in a schoolboy representative team alongside Wallabies Tom Hooper and Langi Gleeson.
Wallabies fans never have to worry about Rob Valetini or Max Jorgensen making the move to the AFL, as those in the crosshairs are the rugby juniors who fit a certain athletic and talent profile.
