Lies, damned lies, and statistics. The oft-quoted phrase describing types of falsehoods felt relevant in Queensland politics this week.
Premier David Crisafulli proudly trumpeted new Queensland Police Service (QPS) data this week, showing an almost 10 per cent drop in victims of crime.
The LNP’s tough on crime agenda and its signature “adult crime, adult time” policy propelled them to power in 2024.
Its legislative focus since then has largely focused on combating what it says is a youth crime crisis.
The government’s ‘adult time, adult crime’ was a key election campaign policy for the LNP. (ABC News: Cameron Simmons)
What the premier didn’t highlight was the time frame previously used to display the data had changed.
The moved goalposts, and all youth crime measures, occur in the spectre of an infamous pledge by Mr Crisafulli in opposition; that he’d resign if victim numbers didn’t drop under his tenure.
‘Apples to oranges’
If you wanted to check out the latest victim of crime figures on the QPS website earlier this month, you would have seen victims of crime data for 2025 compared to 2024.
Now, the site compares the statistics by financial year 2023/24 to financial year 2025/26.
The annual metric had shown victim numbers were down 7.2 per cent.
The Queensland Police Service now compares crime data by financial years. (ABC News: Christopher Gillette)
The latest financial year comparison showed a decrease of 9.6 per cent.
There’s no suggestion the numbers are being manipulated for political gain.
But Griffith University criminologist Dr James Ogilvie pointed out consistency was vital in maintaining integrity in statistics.
Griffith University criminologist Dr James Ogilvie says the Crisafulli government is “essentially comparing apples and oranges”. (Supplied)
“One of the big issues, and this has been the case since the Crisafulli government got in, is that every single time they report on victim numbers for crime, they switch their data source,” he said.
“Whether that’s the actual source of the data itself or the time frame in which that data is measured.
“So it’s essentially comparing apples and oranges.”
Questioned why the 2024/25 financial year had been omitted, a QPS spokesperson said the 23/24 year was used as a reference point, for “a baseline to assess changes over time, rather than focusing solely on a single year-on-year variation”.
On Friday, deputy premier Jarrod Bleijie said it was important to show the comparative approach between the two opposing parties.
“We’re seeing how bad it was under the Labor government, and it’s getting better under the LNP government, just like we promised.
“That’s not politicising statistics. That’s facts.“
Crime seen through a ‘local lens’
Queensland University of Technology adjunct associate professor John Mickel, a former state Labor MP and speaker of parliament, said statistics were often interpreted through a political lens.
“The premier campaigned effectively on adult crime, adult time, and so producing statistics to reaffirm that their policies are working, to his supporters, they will say it’s a promise kept.
“To the opposition and those who are sceptics, they would say they’re fudging the figures.”
Queensland University of Technology adjunct associate professor John Mickel said voters often interpret crime levels based on lived experience. (ABC News: Michael Lloyd)
But he pointed out, regardless of the hard numbers, voters saw crime “strictly through a local lens”.
“It’s a bit like The Castle, it’s the vibe of the thing. Does the vibe feel right in my street or my suburb?”
“The statistics might say one thing, but the lived experience of voters might say something else.
“That is the challenge any government faces, and particularly this one, because it made such an important issue of it.“
Budget backlash
The police stats weren’t the only numerical stoush seen this week.
On Sunday, it was revealed the latest state budget had a $40 million shortfall in funding for the prevention of domestic and family violence compared to the previous.
Amid intense backlash, embattled minister Amanda Camm claimed the funds had been allocated to a since-wound-up taskforce, but couldn’t explain why they weren’t redirected into other programs.
On Monday, treasurer David Janetzki deflected questions on the discrepancy, highlighting his latest budget had more funding for the sector than Labor’s last budget.
“The numbers tell the truth,” he said.
