Former Nationals premier of Queensland Rob Borbidge says alarm bells are ringing within conservative ranks over surging support for One Nation, driven by what he says are “angry” and “fed up” voters.
But with the next federal and Queensland elections not due until 2028, Mr Borbidge says there is still time to prevent what some opinion polls suggest could be an electoral wipe-out for Nationals and Liberals.
“I think conservative politics should be worried across Australia,” he told ABC News.
“There’s some real danger signs there and we can’t take anything for granted.”
‘Recurring nightmare’
Rob Borbidge knows the “danger” better than anyone.
Pauline Hanson after the 1998 Queensland state election, where her party performed better than expected. (ABC News)
He was Queensland premier in 1998 when Pauline Hanson’s One Nation burst onto the scene.
The party performed better than expected, picking up 11 seats, which resulted in a hung parliament and ultimately cost Mr Borbidge and his team office.
Labor’s Peter Beattie managed to form a majority with the help of independents.
Fast-forward nearly three decades, and Mr Borbidge remarks that it is “starting to look like a recurring nightmare”.
Rob Borbidge lost office in 1998. (ABC News)
This week, one national, post-budget opinion poll suggested One Nation was the most popular party in the country.
Even Pauline Hanson was surprised.
“I’m actually a bit amazed, shocked by that actually, to tell you the truth,” she said on ABC Radio Brisbane.
“But it’s a long way outside the election.”
Another opinion poll in May had One Nation picking up as many as 59 federal seats.
This week, One Nation’s David Farley took his place in federal parliament after winning the May by-election in Farrer.
One Nation’s David Farley celebrated his victory with Pauline Hanson at the Farrer by-election. (AAP: Bianca de Marchi)
But it is One Nation’s success in South Australia, winning seven seats in the March state election, that Mr Borbidge highlights.
“There’s a real danger at the present time, if we look at the South Australian election, of One Nation doing well in the cities and the urban areas,” he said.
“I mean they did very well in Adelaide.
“People are unhappy and they’re rightfully disturbed and concerned. They feel that in many respects the political classes [have] let them down.“
Queensland implications
The next Queensland election will be held in October 2028.
The most recent tests of public sentiment have been two by-elections.
Rob Borbidge says the LNP should be aware of One Nation’s threat. (ABC News: Mark Leonardi)
The first in Hinchbrook, in far north Queensland, in November 2025, which the LNP wrested from Katter’s Australian party with a big double-digit swing.
One Nation polled third, with 13.5 per cent of the primary vote.
The second electoral test was in May in the north Brisbane seat of Stafford, which Labor managed to hold onto.
One Nation did not contest Stafford, but did vow that the party would “field a strong team of candidates” in the 2028 general election.
Wayde Chiesa (right) claimed victory at the Hinchinbrook by-election. (Supplied: Facebook)
There are currently no One Nation MPs in the Queensland parliament, while David Crisafulli’s LNP governs with 53 of the state’s 93 seats.
When asked about the potential incursion of One Nation, Mr Crisafulli has previously said he is focused on delivering for Queenslanders.
“They want us to remain disciplined, united, focused,” he told the LNP State Council in March.
Rob Borbidge has sat on various boards and is now a consultant with a lobbying firm. (AAP: John Pryke)
Mr Borbidge, who was the Surfers Paradise MP from 1980 to 2001, believes that is the right approach.
“They’re concentrating on the basics,” he said.
“They’re concentrating on health and education and law and order, and doing what they can in regard to cost of living and housing.
“So far all the indications are that the state LNP has been segregated a bit from the One Nation surge, but that’s not to say it’s not coming.
“The government’s got to be very much aware of the threat.
“Based on what happened in 1998, the Crisafulli government could lose office as a result of a strong One Nation vote.“
