Canberra is in its annual winter politician-free zone, with parliament not back until mid-August.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is well known for his love of footy, so think of the recess like half-time, with the PM and Opposition Leader Angus Taylor using the break to review their form and prepare for the second half.
When he was opposition leader, Albanese liked to say his strategy was for Labor to be kicking with the wind in the last quarter. While the analogy relates to AFL, not his beloved league, you don’t need to be a sports tragic to understand the sentiment.
Albanese will likely be feeling good. He finished the last sitting week with a small bump in the polls after a budget that was bolder than people anticipated — with tax changes on not just housing, but the broader investment sector drawing a bit of flak.
Visiting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Anthony Albanese in Melbourne last week. (AP: Hamish Blair)
He has spent the past fortnight sealing security pacts with Pacific countries and finished the week inking a significant agreement with India, walking the grounds of a packed MCG with Narendra Modi.
But it might be wise for Albanese to remember most of the crowd that filled the stadium were there to see Modi.
Albanese is a confidence player, and the fact the Coalition are spending a lot of time and energy thinking about how to fight One Nation and not enough on Labor is exactly where he wants them to be.
It means that the Coalition has landed very few gloves on Labor. Problems for the government have largely been of their own making, including some own goals.
Labor’s juggling act
Albanese broke a promise that he wouldn’t touch negative gearing despite saying his word was his bond before the last election. He has been working hard to keep discipline across his caucus.
His deputy, Defence Minister Richard Marles, returned from a meeting with his US counterpart with a revised AUKUS agreement that leaves Australia with three used submarines instead of two used and one new.
That may sound like another defence line item or only of note to security experts, but figures in the Labor caucus have been agitated about the AUKUS arrangement for some time.
What sounded and looked like being short-changed by the US caused former cabinet minister Ed Husic to break ranks and call for AUKUS to be reviewed.
That issue, along with the Middle East and Labor’s attempt to manage divisions and sensitivities on both sides of the Israel and Palestine issue, will be the subject of debate at Labor’s national conference in Adelaide in the next fortnight.
All of these issues threaten to sap the government of its ability to focus and address the primary concern for voters — the economy and cost of living.
It’s not just opinion polls reporting people feeling pessimistic about their fortunes. The OECD is warning Australians’ real wages are set to fall further as the country faces its worst economic growth outlook in decades.
The US was yesterday unleashing further waves of strikes against Iran after the Islamic regime defied an ultimatum to guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and attacked a Cyprus-flagged cargo ship transiting the waterway.
Iran responded by targeting US facilities in states across the Gulf. It was another spectacular reminder that this crisis and its ramifications on our economy are only starting to accelerate again.
This is a problem the government will have to manage yet again. It will restart conversations about keeping a fuel excise cut for longer.
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Taylor takes it to One Nation
After a shaky few weeks, Angus Taylor finally managed to get on the front foot and delivered a speech with his strongest rebuke against One Nation.
Addressing the Sydney Institute, Taylor pivoted, framing Pauline Hanson as an economic liability rather than an alternative for disaffected conservative voters.
He offered three reasons why Australians shouldn’t park their vote with Hanson. It was the first evidence that Taylor is prepared to take the fight up to One Nation rather than dancing to their tune.
“If you’re considering supporting One Nation, there are at least three reasons to think again. First, One Nation is a column of smoke. Long on rhetoric but short on substance, One Nation’s offering is a random grab bag of poorly defined, contradictory, and constantly changing positions that leave no clear sense of who they are or what they stand for.
“Second, One Nation does not have the team needed to meet the challenges Australia faces. Australia is in the grip of an economic crisis. Fixing it is the single most important job of the next government.
“Third, One Nation would send us broke. The root cause of our economic crisis is an explosion in government. And One Nation’s solution is to double down.”
SA Liberal senator Alex Antic has already hit back, saying the Liberal Party and One Nation “are not enemies” after Angus Taylor’s blistering attack and urging the parties to work together to defeat the government.
It demonstrates that Taylor will need to hold his nerve in a party that is split over how to manage One Nation between those that advocate appeasement and collaboration and others like frontbencher Andrew Hastie, who has invoked war-like language to take them on.
Taylor’s new strategy to seek to destroy One Nation’s economic credentials is the most plausible of all of the approaches the Liberals have embarked on so far.
If the Liberals seek to win office again, they need to establish their economic bona fides. Timidity on taking on their main opponents to their right has only served to drive their vote down in poll after poll.
When the bells resume ringing in the halls of parliament, both Albanese and Taylor will do well to dispose of any complacency.
With the government facing rolling external shocks, from the continued conflict in Iran, the emergence of bird flu in the country, to the sluggish economic settings — if Albanese wants to keep discipline across his caucus and government, he will need to show the same and avoid missteps like his podcast comments, which ended in an unequivocal apology.
Taylor will need to prove to his party room why he was the right person to replace Sussan Ley; adopting his own discipline in not getting dragged into debating One Nation on its own terms and getting back to core Liberal strengths like the economy is a good start.
Patricia Karvelas is host of ABC News Afternoon Briefing at 4pm weekdays on ABC News Channel, co-host of the weekly Party Room podcast with Fran Kelly and host of politics and news podcast Politics Now.
