Jonno Duniam’s decision to leave the Senate by the end of the year thrusts the Tasmanian branch of the Liberal party into uncertainty.
But Sunday’s announcement also made one thing clear — why so many big names had been throwing their hat into the preselection ring.
Senator Wendy Askew’s decision not to recontest the seat she’s held since 2019 has meant the second spot on the Liberals’ Senate ticket at the next federal election will be up for grabs.
Jonno Duniam said he had discussed the decision with Angus Taylor (right) a few weeks earlier. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)
The real prize was only revealed on Sunday; there’s a seat open from the end of this year.
A member ballot in August will not only decide who takes the crucial top two places on the 2028 federal election ballot, but also who fills the casual vacancy.
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Former Liberal strategist Brad Stansfield made the first public bid on Friday, through his political podcast Poll Position.
“I’m genuinely worried about the future of the country if the Liberal party can’t get itself sorted out before the next election,” he said to his listeners.
He has since received an endorsement from Senator Duniam, who said the party needed “political smarts”.
“We are in the business of winning votes, and he [Stansfield] is someone who has a good track record of winning votes,” Senator Duniam said on Sunday.
Mr Stansfield also has the backing of three former premiers, listed in a brochure being distributed to members.
Brad Stansfield has announced his tilt for a Senate seat. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
It may already be about winning second place.
Former deputy premier, former federal member for Bass and sitting state MP, Michael Ferguson, is understood to be canvassing a tilt at preselection for the Senate.
In a post to his website last week, Mr Ferguson acknowledged the speculation about his future.
“None of us know what tomorrow brings,” he wrote, not ruling out a run.
Former Tasmanian health minister Sarah Courtney is also understood to have been making calls.
Latrobe councillor Jacki Martin, who is a parliamentary advisor to Wendy Askew, held the third spot on the Liberals’ Senate ticket in 2025.
She has remained an active presence on social media since that tilt and could run again if some of the more established names drop out.
Changing face of the Liberal Party
In his announcement, Senator Duniam acknowledged he was leaving his post at an inopportune time.
With the rise of One Nation, the federal Liberal Party is arguably facing its greatest threat.
A sharp performer in front of the cameras, Senator Duniam would have been an asset in the next campaign and the lead-up to it.
Tasmania’s federal Liberal team is just four strong, and two of them are leaving.
Claire Chandler was recently elevated to Angus Taylor’s shadow cabinet. Come next election, she will be Tasmania’s most senior federal Liberal.
But neither she nor Richard Colbeck are household names.
The Liberals hold none of Tasmania’s five lower house seats, having lost Bass and Braddon to Labor at the 2025 election.
It leaves the party with its smallest footprint in recent history.
Whoever does come in the door will be needed to help turn the tide.
Lee Hanson, the daughter of Pauline Hanson, is leading the One Nation charge in Tasmania.
Lee Hanson has continued to build her profile. (ABC News: Ebony ten Broeke)
Ms Hanson narrowly missed out on a Senate seat last year.
She has continued to build her profile since then.
In February this year, polling company EMRS — which is owned by Mr Stansfield — found that 24 per cent of Tasmanian voters intended to back One Nation with a first preference vote at the federal election.
With the party’s explosion in the polls since, one or even two Senate seats are in play.
The most likely source for the first appears to be Labor, which will have three senators up for re-election.
This is thanks to Tammy Tyrrell, the former Jacqui Lambie Nework senator who turned independent before joining the ranks of government.
Could that second come from the Liberals?
Labor’s Tammy Tyrrell was elected under the Jacqui Lambie Network banner in 2022. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)
Crunch time for Liberal Party
How best to fend off One Nation is a nationwide conversation for the Liberals, not just a Tasmanian one.
The party has been openly discussing whether the path forward lies to the left or the right.
With Mr Taylor becoming the federal party leader and former prime minister Tony Abbott elected unopposed as party president, it appears to be the latter.
It raises the question of what the Tasmanian campaign will look like at the next election.
Can it be more organised than the last one, in which the state office complained of a disconnect with the federal leader?
Can Senator Chandler lead a campaign that wins back the middle, having previously courted controversy for her views about transgender women?
Perhaps One Nation is viewed as a more pressing threat.
Lee Hanson speaks at a March for Australia demonstration last year. (ABC News: Monty Jacka)
Mr Stansfield, a conservative, has warned against the Liberals “following One Nation down the rabbit hole”.
Interestingly, the state government he comes from has been so successful because it’s been able to “own” the middle.
The party has fewer than two years to work out how to stave off electoral oblivion.
There may be nothing more valuable than someone who just knows how to win votes.
