One Nation could be in government within six months. Not in Canberra, but in Victoria, a state that has long held the moniker of the progressive capital of the country.
The idea that One Nation could come close to the government benches was absurd six months ago, but it’s a prospect Victorian Labor MPs and insiders are increasingly discussing as the election approaches and the government’s own prospects of re-election wane.
The fear is that Victoria delivers a hung parliament with a large bloc of One Nation seats, which would see it join with the Coalition to form a new government.
From the prime minister down, political operatives across the nation are paying more than usual attention to the Victorian election.
While it is just a snapshot in time, polling shows Pauline Hanson’s party is on track to win a large swathe of seats when voters head to the polls in November.
So, how One Nation performs and how Victorian Labor and the Coalition campaign against the party will be scrutinised by more than just Victorian voters.
One Nation-led coalition ‘very real possibility’
On the polling numbers, this week’s Freshwater Strategy poll in the Herald Sun showed Labor on 23 per cent primary, One Nation 25 per cent and the Coalition on 27 per cent. One Nation could win dozens of seats in the 88-member Victorian lower house.
As Victorian Labor MPs have mulled a potential challenge against Premier Jacinta Allan in a desperate attempt to arrest cratering polling numbers, many have warned that a possible outcome is a One Nation-led coalition against Labor in the next parliament.
Jacinta Allan faced a barrage of questions over her leadership this week. (ABC News)
“It’s certainly not impossible, it’s a very real possibility,” former ALP assistant Victorian secretary turned pollster Kosmos Samaras said.
Victoria matters federally because it’s the first big test of One Nation’s surging national popularity in a big electorate. It will present more lessons for federal political parties than March’s South Australian election because the electorate is bigger and more diverse.
One Nation’s popularity has also continued to rise, national polling shows, and the veteran leader appears to be in full campaign mode attending events across the nation, while her party says it has received millions in donations just this week.
Labor is refining how to campaign against One Nation’s new popularity.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has consistently lumped One Nation in with the Coalition.
“We’ll continue to campaign against the three right-wing parties,” he told reporters in Sydney on Thursday.
But the federal government is unlikely to treat One Nation as a de facto opposition. It doesn’t want to elevate their status.
Anthony Albanese is using tactics to avoid elevating One Nation’s status. (ABC News: Adam Kennedy)
Instead, it will tell voters that if they back the Coalition or One Nation, they’ll get both, because they cannot form government in their own right.
The prime minister and his team have also ramped up rhetoric on Senator Hanson’s record on support for working people.
“Pauline Hanson and One Nation have voted against all of the improvements that have been made on living standards,” Mr Albanese said.
“They vote against battlers each and every time.”
Both the PM and Victorian premier are focusing on cost-of-living support, workers’ rights and fundamentals such as health and education.
Labor is trying to pitch solutions to grievances; an emotion One Nation has built its success on.
In Victoria, operatives in the labour movement hope that it can bring working-class voters who have drifted to One Nation back with this type of campaign.
But it might not be enough, given One Nation is attracting a bunch of voters ultimately fed up with the two-party system.
One Nation’s rise complicates political landscape
The federal Coalition is clearly torn on how to manage the orange phenomenon, with some MPs already waving the white flag. This week, Liberal frontbencher Tony Pasin said the party should work “hand in glove” with One Nation to carve up seats in a bid to beat Labor.
Many read that as an attempt to protect Liberal seats. The idea has been ruled out by leader Angus Taylor.
The mission is slightly easier for Victorian Opposition Leader Jess Wilson because there is a mood for change south of the Murray, but her quest to win ultimately hinges on how One Nation performs in November.
The further from Melbourne’s centre, the more pronounced One Nation’s popularity is.
Victoria’s opposition, led by Jess Wilson, faced an uphill battle at this election, even before One Nation’s increasing popularity. (ABC News)
That’s bad news for Nationals MPs and Labor MPs in Melbourne’s outer northern and western suburbs.
When the orange party started to make inroads, the wisdom was that it was only bad news for the Coalition. It made the opposition’s mission to end 12 years in the political wilderness even harder; it already must win at least 16 seats without losing any.
One Nation’s rise makes that very hard.
Nationals MPs are particularly vulnerable, and so are Liberals in the suburbs. It also complicates Liberal efforts to snatch suburban seats off Labor.
From the premier down, Labor MPs were initially cocky about One Nation hurting the Coalition’s prospects.
But as the months have gone by, the penny has dropped with Labor MPs that they’re not immune.
Ms Allan this week conceded for the first time that One Nation was taking “a slice” of Labor’s vote.
The reality is Labor is facing losing seats it would never have dreamt of, especially in working-class suburbs once considered heartland in the north and west of Melbourne.
These seats are unlikely to fall to the Liberals.
“There’s only two possible outcomes in November: a Labor minority government or a government that is made up of One Nation and the Coalition, with One Nation possibly being the majority partner,” Mr Samaras says.
Kos Samaras says One Nation could become a key player in a hung parliament. (ABC News)
There’s a hope among political strategists that as voters start to focus more seriously on the election, voter flirtation with One Nation will end, as people begin to think about who they actually trust to run the government.
While Victorian Liberals are worried, some remain confident that 2026 will be their year.
Party insiders acknowledge the party must lift its primary vote, but believe it can convince voters that the only way to end the Labor government is by voting Liberal.
This will be the mantra for the campaign.
A group of Liberals also believe their mission is to simply finish in the top two in each seat, with both Labor and One Nation likely to direct preferences their way over the other.
Operatives also believe that One Nation voters want to change the government and “hate the premier more than any other party”, so they can be swayed.
It may be wishful thinking.
On Friday, the Queensland senator and the New South Wales-based Barnaby Joyce are due to attend a campaign event in Melbourne.
In the coming weeks, if not days, it is expected a Victorian leader will emerge along with a squad of election candidates.
Labor and the Coalition are banking on One Nation throwing up a group of candidates with questionable backgrounds and views.
The party’s sole Victorian MP Rikkie-Lee Tyrell says One Nation has received more than 1,500 applications.
Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell is One Nation’s sole Victorian sitting member. (Supplied: Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell)
She says her focus now is winning the balance of power in the state’s upper house, but as the party’s popularity continues to rise in the polls, so does its ambitions.
As the election nears and popularity refuses to wane, a much more ambitious One Nation project could become a reality.
