Of course, Iran will, as the Islamic Republic always does, cheat and lie from the beginning of the implementation of the peace agreement, and will attempt to recover everything that it will have pledged to give up. The United States has already declared that it will retain heavy forces in the theatre in the near-term, in order to be able to descend on a moment’s notice on Iran in co-operation with local allies, to punish it and enforce the agreement. President Trump has specifically promised to go back to war over violations. Assuming that a nuclear agreement is promptly agreed to and implacably enforced, the peace will have achieved the primary objectives of denying Iran nuclear weapons while completely reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This may be all it achieves, though positive realignments among the Gulf states and a more cautious attitude from Tehran should also occur. But since Iran is bound to violate whatever (if anything) it signs, this may, at the very least, be considered a satisfactory end of Phase 1. If a second phase is needed, it will be at a more convenient time for the Trump administration than the run-up to midterm elections.
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