Jeremy Rockliff wants to move forward after cabinet resignations — but will the parliament let him?

Two ministers gone in just over two weeks.

The last time that happened in Tasmania, the premier was gone in a matter of months.

But the Liberal government is in a very different place compared with 2022.

For one, the government is in minority and at the behest of a powerful crossbench.

Which makes for point two: Jane Howlett and Madeleine Ogilvie quit the frontbench not of their own free will but because Labor, the Greens and independents demanded it.

Jump or be pushed was the message — and they heeded it.

To paraphrase former deputy premier Michael Ferguson when he was forced out of cabinet over the Spirit of Tasmania ferry debacle — they could do the maths and the numbers weren’t on their side.

Sticking with maths, there’s one clear fact — as much as the government might like to write off the past few weeks as political muckery by Labor and the Greens, those two parties only make 14 seats.

Another four members of a rather diverse crossbench are needed to boot any government MPs.

So how were they convinced that it was time for Ms Ogilvie and Ms Howlett to go?

Ms Ogilvie’s problem was that her fellow politicians on the other side of the chamber felt she had misled parliament over whether she was subject to Supreme Court proceedings.

Ms Howlett, on the other hand, has never answered questions about court proceedings, nor has she been able to explain the hundreds of thousands of taxpayer-funded legal fees she incurred.

The calls for her to go were already growing when it came out in a committee that her office might have known about a breach of caretaker convention. The government maintains it didn’t.

Those calls hit fever pitch, seemingly garnering those last few votes, and a day later, she was gone.

As the government strode in for a brutal Question Time on Tuesday, those two empty seats were stark reminders of the battle it’d just lost.

Opposition parties and independents would argue that they have held the ministers to account because the premier proved unable.

But if the government thinks those two resignations are enough to wipe the slate clean, it’s got another thing coming.

Because, aside from some apologising and clarifying that they were forced into, it hasn’t really shown that it understands the gravity of the situation.

Yes, some in parliament may be willing to play “games”, but when the majority of the chamber turns against a minister, that minister should not be dismissed so easily.

So what has the government taken on board, and will it be able to avoid drawing the ire of parliament again?

There’s a lot to be said about the different ways the premier has reacted to the ministers’ forced resignations.

While Mr Rockliff apparently accepted Madeleine Ogilvie’s resignation with “sadness”, he’s made little effort to back her statement that she fell on her own sword to uphold the integrity of the Supreme Court.

He might not have outright said he thinks she misled parliament, but he’s avoided answering the question and hasn’t attempted to mount a defence.

Nor has he blamed the opposition or the Greens for Ms Ogilvie’s predicament. Usually a go-to move when he thinks something’s unjust.

Compare that with the fierce defence he mounted for Jane Howlett both in a statement and in parliament.

Mr Rockliff has said Ms Howlett is the unfortunate victim of an opposition whose “relentless personal and political” attacks have driven her from cabinet, finding herself on the backbench apparently through no fault of her own.

Just ignore that $405,000 in unexplained legal fees paid for by the taxpayer.

It seems that in the case of Ms Ogilvie, especially given the premier’s apology, the government knows it’s messed up, even if it’s not outright condemning her actions.

Could it be that they are wary of an MP who knows all the cabinet’s secrets, but in the past decade has also sat as a Labor MP and independent?

Off the back of the Ogilvie saga, the premier has announced plans to review legal indemnity laws and some issues surrounding the Integrity Commission.

When it comes to Ms Howlett, the government certainly won’t be learning any lessons because it doesn’t admit there was ever a problem.

But Ms Howlett has long had a question mark over her head in the eyes of the opposition, whether it’s speculation around if she could be the subject of an Integrity Commission investigation or her taxpayer-funded legal fees.

That scrutiny arguably amped up when it became her responsibility to try and shut down the greyhound racing industry.

While others were talking about Ms Ogilvie, Labor was doing all it could to drag Ms Howlett down with her.

Monday’s parliamentary committee revelation proved the final nail in her stylish coffin.

But it was arguably not the clearest-cut example of wrongdoing.

It is certainly feasible that the advisor genuinely didn’t know Tasracing intended to publicly spruik a Liberal Party policy during an election.

Wires are crossed all the time … or maybe that is too generous.

Only the people involved can really know.

Was it fair for her to go down for that? People will have different opinions.

It seems unlikely that had that been the only issue with question marks over it surrounding Ms Howlett, that Labor and the Greens would have found their 18 votes.

But all that mattered was that enough of the parliament was finally convinced Ms Howlett had to go, and so they made it happen.

‘The last few weeks have not been good enough’

Amid all the mess, the government has argued that it is getting on with the job and focusing on what Tasmanians truly care about.

And they are right: if you tried to talk to most Tasmanians on the street about legal fees, misleading parliament, or what someone said in a parliamentary committee on caretaker conventions, they’d probably write you off quickly as a very boring human.

Tasmanians are worried about health, housing, the cost of living and if the Socceroos are going to finally make it past the group stage.

Yes, these issues distract the parliament and the government from those core problems.

But it’s also the government’s fault that there are issues in the first place.

Ultimately, this is about honesty, and Tasmanians probably want that from their politicians.

In 2022, Ms Howlett was the second cabinet minister to resign, before premier Peter Gutwein headed out the door.

This time, she’s unlikely to be the herald of a new premier, but Mr Rockliff should at least heed the warning.

The opposition parties and crossbench may be gun shy when it comes to a no-confidence motion that could risk another election, but that doesn’t mean they can’t make his life hard.

Lucky for him, a motion to install Labor as the government does not seem to be on the table any time soon.

But Mr Rockliff himself may face a censure motion in the coming days for how he handled the Ms Ogilvie situation.

Something he may take on the chin.

It won’t end there, though, unless the government puts into action what it preaches: accountability, transparency and trustworthiness.

Reflecting on a long few weeks, the premier said it was “time to move forward”.

“By any measure, the last few weeks have not been good enough,” he posted on social media last night.

“And I put my hand up and take full responsibility for that.”

The parliament has spoken, will Mr Rockliff listen?