As Donald Trump flew over the French Alps towards the G7 summit this week, the postcard-like sun-drenched scene around him may have disguised a brewing storm.
The stream of world leaders rushing to the Oval Office to praise Trump and shower him with gifts is so last year.
In Évian-les-Bains this week, the US president has found himself among a group of emboldened counterparts, many of whom now seem comfortable criticising him publicly.
In fact, these days their popularity among voters at home often rises when they do.
How the new dynamic plays out this week is one of the most complex variables of this year’s summit.
Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Donald Trump make a point to each other at the summit on Tuesday. (Reuters: Christian Hartmann/Pool)
The G7 comprises Canada, Italy, France, Germany, the US, United Kingdom, Japan and the European Union.
Leaders convene annually for in-person talks. Guest nations, including Australia, often participate too, although Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has not been invited this time.
Ideologically, the G7 leaders are a diverse bunch. But most have something in common: being the target of Trump’s ire during his second term.
The US president’s wrath has most recently stemmed from other nations’ reluctance to join his war in Iran.
This week’s summit is the first time the leaders have all met face-to-face since the US and Israel launched their attacks on Tehran, a move that has strangled oil markets, sparked panic on global financial markets and geopolitical uncertainty.
Keir Starmer, left, Donald Trump, Kenya’s President William Ruto, Emmanuel Macron and Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi pose for a snap at the summit on Tuesday. (Reuters: Christian Hartmann)
When British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer refused to let US warplanes use British bases to attack Iran in March, Trump unloaded on his country’s long-time ally, describing Sir Keir as “not Winston Churchill”.
The US president in April said Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni lacked courage for not joining his war.
Later that month, after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the US was being “humiliated by the Iranian leadership”, Trump announced he would withdraw 5,000 troops stationed in the country.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with whom Trump has a famously strained relationship, will also attend this year’s gathering, and met Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the summit on Tuesday.
French President Emmanuel Macron, the host of this year’s summit, has long prided himself on his ability to deal with Trump. But their relationship is regularly tested.
Trump has taken jabs at Macron’s marriage, threatened to impose 200 per cent tariffs on French wine and pointed out the French president does not have long left in the job (the unpopular Macron is ineligible to run again at next year’s elections under his country’s constitution).
Macron, as host, has another challenge on his hands; keeping the US president interested long enough to stay. He has already moved the date to accommodate Trump’s birthday party, which was celebrated with a UFC cage fight on the White House lawn on Sunday.
Macron hosted Trump for a dinner at the opulent Palace of Versailles on Wednesday evening: could this have been an effort to ensure the US president does not leave the G7 summit early as he did last year?
European leaders have ‘long list of grievances’
Much of the discussion at the G7 summit is expected to be about the war in the Middle East. Trump, whose approval rating at home has reached historic lows, arrived in France the day after he announced a 60-day ceasefire agreement with Iran.
University of NSW war studies professor David Kilcullen said the US president could not turn up to the gathering empty handed (in a diplomatic sense).
“He really needs an end to the conflict that he can paint as resulting in a deal that is somehow better than [former] president [Barack] Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the so-called ‘Iran deal’, which president Trump exited in his first term in 2018,” Professor Kilcullen said.
“If he can’t show that the inflation, the food shortages, the rise in fuel costs was actually worth it for some political purpose, I think that leaves him quite weak going into the mid-term elections in November.”
Donald Trump speaks with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney during the G7 lunch on Tuesday. (Reuters: Evelyn Hockstein/Pool)
Details about the Iran-US ceasefire proposal are scarce and are expected to be clarified later this week. US Vice-President JD Vance said the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between Iran and the US was about “a page-and-a-half” long and a “very general document”.
It is not a definitive peace plan, but is supposed to provide a framework for further negotiations. Critics contend many of the most difficult issues remain unresolved.
The G7 leaders will be pressing Trump for the details on how this blueprint will be implemented to stabilise global oil markets, guarantee Lebanon’s sovereignty and ensure Iran never has a nuclear weapon.
Professor Kilcullen said Trump would be trying “use the G7 as a platform to demonstrate strength, power and the ability to resolve the conflict”.
“It’s a bit unclear whether the other G7 nations will play along,” he said. “Most of them have been quite opposed to the conduct of the war.
“I think it’s going to be interesting to see whether European leaders in particular are willing to just let bygones be bygones, be happy that the war is over, if it is, and not make a big deal of it, or whether we’re likely to see pushback from those leaders against the narrative that it’s a US victory.”
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The White House expects the next phase of negotiations with Iran to take several weeks. Matthias Matthijs, a senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, told US broadcaster CBS earlier this week Trump would arrive at the G7 with the “wind at his back”.
“But don’t mistake it for harmony. The Europeans show up with a long list of grievances: tariffs on their goods, his [Trump’s] on-again-off-again posture towards NATO and economic pain from Hormuz being shut,” he said.
“While in 2025 the Europeans were willing to bend the knee, in 2026, this is much less the case. Expect a frank, potentially even combustible summit.
“Trump might be dictating the tempo, but allies will be pushing back harder than a year ago.”
The summit wraps on Wednesday, local time. Publicly at least, the leaders have been cordial about their dealings. Sir Keir, for example, told reporters on Tuesday he and Trump “get on really well”.
Behind the scenes, however, there’s a growing consensus it may be a different story and that these once rock-solid alliances are enduring their most turbulent period in decades.
